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     A Percentage Grand?

You have 12 top tricks in your heart slam but you have set yourself a harder task as the final contract is 7H. How would you go about finding the best way to make all 13?

 

Since you were blest (or not blessed with the JT..maybe simpler without these cards!), the grand slam cannot be worse than a finesse for the Q. 50% success rate or indeed a tad more as you would lay down the A before you shut your eyes to take the finesse. One day that queen will be singleton in the West hand and even if it is not, your pain would be over quicker when it appears doubleton in the East hand. There’s no way you can go down if that was the lay-out.

Alas, it was not. However, this is dedicated to all those West defenders who sit there with doubleton queen, just waiting for the finesse. The sad news for them is that had a declarer taken the best percentage line, then the grand slam would have made. Yet, that was not the lay-out either. It was worse than that in that West held Qxx …and yet the grand slam should have made!

The alternative line to the finesse is to examine squeeze possibilities. We can combine these with playing not just one but two top spades.

Thus, win the Q lead and play a trump to dummy and ruff a club. Another trump to dummy (and on this day hearts were 2-2) and ruff the last club. Now cash AK and if there is no good news, one top diamond. At that point, these cards remain:

 

Declarer can now play Q overtaking and then J throwing 9 from hand. West can discard their club but then has to part with a diamond and the last three diamonds in South’s hand are all winners.

Strangely, this is a better line than the spade finesse. The chance of a doubleton Q in either hand, coupled with a singleton Q, is around 18%. Where spades are 3-3 (initially 36%), the hand with Q will be squeezed holding 4 or more diamonds about half of that time or a further 18% approx. (the actual situation)
Finally, where the spade break is 4-2 (48%, taking off the one third when the Q was doubleton), there is still a just over 18% chance of four spades and four plus diamonds being in the same hand. As the hand develops, so the percentage chances change, but we are in the 54/55% chance of success, certainly as good as and a little better than a second- round spade finesse.

 These were the four hands:

 

Maybe not! Stick with Plan A!

The deal occurred recently in the US trials and the declarer in grand slam was top US player, Kit Woolsey. He looked like he was going down the squeeze line as he had ruffed out the clubs and had cashed one top spade and two top diamonds but changed his mind and went to dummy and took the losing spade finesse.

Thanks to Michael Cornell for highlighting the board and offering the better way of playing the contract. Playing Teams, the right contract would certainly be 6. Playing Pairs, the same applies with more pressure on the need to score the overtrick.

It just shows. Next time holding Qxx behind the AKx does not guarantee you a trick in the suit even with four cards in the suit in the dummy.

A Powerhouse but which contract?

We certainly have the goods, 26 hcp. Game in our own hand? Well not quite right. Where to go next?

 

Richard Solomon

 

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