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TALES OF AKARANA
PERCENTAGE OR PSYCHOLOGY?
Which takes precedence when you have those big decisions to make at the bridge table? At what point is it right to abandon the percentage line in favour of the psychological one? You just cannot apply an exact percentage to psychology. Try this one:
Board 10 East Deals Both Vul |
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West | North | East | South |
Pass | Pass | ||
Pass | 1 NT | Pass | 3 NT |
All pass |
3 NT by North
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Playing a strong no-trump opening, 1NT seems a very logical choice as after opening 1, you would likely be faced with an awkward rebid. Thus, it seems that the above auction was very common or where playing a 12-14 1NT opening, North could open 1 and rebid in no-trumps after South’s club response.
13 of the 15 tables played in 3NT by North with just about all receiving a diamond lead. There is only one way to make this contract without losing a trick in clubs, singleton jack in the West hand. You then have three tricks in each suit except spades.
The problem is that that lay-out is very specific, very unlikely. How then can we best lose a trick in clubs without getting what looks like a killing spade switch? Occasionally, there will be a blockage in the spade suit to prevent four losers there. With no blockage, we need to discourage the switch.
This may be easier when you have opened 1. It may be harder to do if you let East in with a club trick. If East has a spade holding like AQx, they will find the spade switch more easily than their partner. Yet, the percentage line of playing the club suit for only one loser is to take a double finesse, starting off with the Q and repeating the finesse when you lose to the king..if you are not already defeated.
Of course, if East puts up the king, you can duck and hope that West did not start with Jxx. Don’t you love this game, such decisions?! I resorted to less of the percentages, more of the psychology. I rose with the K at trick one and played a low club away from the ace. If East held the king, then I had to hope for passive defence or a spade blockage. When East played low, I played the 10 from hand…and held my breath.
''Good news one'' was that the king won the trick…and at trick 3? East continued diamonds.
Board 10 East Deals Both Vul |
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West | North | East | South |
Pass | Pass | ||
Pass | 1 NT | Pass | 3 NT |
All pass |
That was “good news 2” and when clubs behaved ("good news 3"), I had 11 tricks.
5 declarers failed in 3NT. Three made 9 tricks, while two made 10 and three made 11.
On the actual lay-out, ducking the Q may have worked but I feel that this time to leave the percentage line behind for another day. And had I lost to doubleton jack in the East hand? I felt I could still sleep soundly as it was really then a question of one down or two down. My vote, therefore, goes to “psychology”.
Richard Solomon