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Double Shot : Part 2.

Yesterday’s article could have been called “second time lucky”. Could that phrase be used for today’s deal?

 

It’s an opening lead problem. North’s 2 was Precision style, 11-15, at least 5 clubs and maybe a 4-card major. 2 was an artificial game try to find out more about partner’s hand. 3 said minimum, 6+ clubs and no major. What is your choice?

There was a lot of Panel support for a heart. So, which one?

Nigel Kearney “K or Q depending on agreements. We want to make an attacking lead as they have a long suit. Hearts are a better choice than spades because it will be safe and effective whenever partner has the ace or the jack. A spade is more likely to cost a trick or a tempo. I prefer a high heart. Fourth could work by avoiding blocking the suit if partner has something like Jx, J10x, or J9x. With a five card suit that would be more of a concern. A low heart might let declarer score the jack cheaply for their ninth trick. If we have agreed that the king asks for unblock or count then we should lead the queen because we definitely don't want partner to 'unblock' the jack. Our suit is KQxx not KQ109.”

So, Nigel’s comment about an attacking lead certainly eliminates a club or a diamond lead. Agreeing is:

Michael Ware “K or Q: Whichever asks for attitude. Sets up a trick and we can still switch to spades if necessary.”

Then, there’s a low heart:

Lysandra Zheng “ 2: Needs the least from partner to set up tricks. Not at all clear what's happening on the board as 3NT can be a high-card point light contract anticipating a running suit and I'm reasonably afraid of giving up the 9th trick.”

Peter Newell “2: given I have 11 hcp, partner cannot have much likely 2-5 hcp. To defeat 3NT, we likely need 3-4 tricks in a major suit and hearts is preferable given I have the A as a trick if we can set up hearts. I prefer hearts as partner only needs some length and the J and we are in with a chance.  Occasionally even the 10  may be enough from partner (e.g. if dummy has Jxx and declarer A9).  It’s hard to see how partner can have good enough diamonds for a diamond to set up enough tricks which only leaves a spade.  I prefer a heart to a spade given it needs less from partner, and because if we go after spades, a slow heart trick might not be any good even when we can take 4 spade tricks.”

The 2 leaders hope for at least J from partner. The high heart leaders are fearful of losing a trick to that card. With the A which will hopefully score a trick along with perhaps 4 tricks in hearts, the heart lead seems as good a chance as any. Here’s more high hearters:  

Michael Cornell “K: Even if not the best lead, it  will maybe give us a chance to switch to spades. With my club holding, it is very easy to envisage declarer having 6 club tricks so I don’t want to risk a low heart to give him one cheaply.

I think a low spade lead is super aggressive and almost needs to find partner with the king.”

Stephen Blackstock “K: My club holding makes it look as if we need tricks in a hurry; a passive defence may give declarer an easy ride. I don't choose a spade because, unless East has five, that is a route to no more than four tricks and we will still need another from somewhere. If a heart doesn't strike gold, at least I didn't concede a cheap trick and I hope will retain a chance to try spades later.”

Yet, will there be “a later”? If our partner did turn up with J, they will need to hold something very useful in diamonds like QJx to stop South rattling off 9 or more tricks. One panellist has gone for spades:

Steph Jacob “ 2: I think it is really close between a heart or a spade. We know they are going to drive a whole lot of club tricks at us and they probably have just enough in the minors for their contract so where is the potential to do the most damage early on?

 I think that is a spade. Leading from KQxx requires a small heart lead.  Will we hit declarer with no heart stop at all? Probably unlikely but a spade has a little more chance I think, finding partner with K to some length will produce the tricks that we need. This only needs declarer to hold the Q which is quite possible. So, I choose a small spade on this auction.

Just as there is a problem of which heart we should lead, so the same might apply to a spade lead. Where declarer has Q and some length, we must lead low to partner’s presumed K. Yet, that no longer gives us a possible double shot, that of partner having neither missing top spade honour. I fingered my low spade and the A for many seconds before pulling out the K. First thoughts are often the best ones and any spade would have done as this was the full lay-out.

 

Declarer won A and ran off 6 club tricks. The diamond finesse ensured the contract would succeed. A low spade lead would have ensured the contract’s demise as long as East returned the lead. The A lead would have been equally effective.

At different vulnerability, East might have made a Weak Jump overcall, avoiding 3NT problems. 5 of either minor is makeable as long as declarer can play diamonds for no loser.

The Panel made good arguments for a heart lead, though perhaps, just perhaps a mitigating factor could be the need for 5 quick tricks..and then Kxxxx is all would be needed to take those quick tricks. It does not appear that the “double shot” of switching to hearts does apply here because of the possibility of South holding Qxx. A good result for South, therefore, with most of the Panel on lead…me, too! ☹

Richard Solomon

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