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Another Leading Question.

As promised yesterday, we have another “Leading Question” today. Like our two from yesterday, it comes from a Seniors’ match in the recent World Championships in Buenos Aires. Yesterday’s two had a theme of attacking leads working rather than “sit and wait” defensive ones. What then, today?

 

Your 1NT is 12-14 and partner’s 2 Stayman. Thereafter, the opponents took over and were very quickly in 4. It’s your lead?

Bruce Anderson “2: partner is very likely to have 4 spades and hopefully some strength in that suit. I am trying to avoid giving anything away by any alternative lead.”

I agree with the first and last parts of Bruce’s comments. Partner does seem to have 4 spades though I am not sure why they should have any strength in that suit. However, I disagree more strongly with one comment here:

Leon Meier “A : I'm pretty tempted to lead A and a second heart right off the bat. It could be bad if partner has QJ doubleton or if I solve declarer’s guess but I think the chance of them ruffing is very high, given partner is known to have at least invitational values(if they were weaker they'd have both majors and they don't) so the opponents bidding 4 means likely distribution and drawing trumps may be necessary here. I hope partner doesn't have singleton king.”

Does partner really have invitational values? With that and presumably a four-card spade suit, we may well have heard our partner compete with 4. We will return to what partner might have shortly but I think there is zero chance of crashing partner’s singleton K. That is something one does only once in a life-time and I have already done that!

Back then to spades:

Steph Jacob “ 2: I will lead a small spade, hopeful of generating a trick whilst I still have the A. Partner doesn’t sound like they have much but it seems they have spades so a spade I will lead.”

Stephen Blackstock “2: (4ths) or 8 (3/5th). Two very different layouts are possible. In one, East has invitational values so there is every chance to get him on play for a club shift. A trump may cut down on ruffing, but could pick up partner's holding or cost us a tempo needed for defensive tricks. And if declarer has a 5-4 or 6-4 fit, trump leads will be ineffective anyway. 

The alternative lay-out has East with a very weak holding, either 4342 or 4351. Here, he expected to be doubled in 1NT and is combining looking for a better spot with making it harder for the opponents. Opposite 4342 a spade is best, perhaps East has an entry or the K - neither is likely but any plan is better than none.

Opposite 4351 I should lead A - the newspaper card! I'm not choosing that because I think running ahead of a double is a mistake. It may not happen and often 1NTx is cheapest. However, if I knew that partner believes in running with a weak hand then I think that the A has as much chance to succeed as anything.”

Ah…some alternatives as to what partner might have. I do feel if East had invitational values, they would have taken some action over 4.

Peter Newell “A: I think East is likely weak, maybe a 4342 or 4351 shape, but it would not surprise me if North had a shortage most likely spades.  I'm not sure that we will cut down many ruffs but I also think the A is likely a safer lead than a spade or a diamond.  A spade is my second choice given partner likely has 4 spades and if the opponents do not have a shortage and partner has the K, we may need to lead one - on the other hand leading a spade could easily blow a trick if partner does not have a spade honour. So, I'll go with the A.”

What about a diamond?

Nigel Kearney “ 10. Dummy probably will not have a running suit so I want to lead something safe. A diamond looks better than a spade. Partner might have bid Stayman with a very weak 4333 but usually will have four diamonds. Since opposing hearts are 5-3, dummy will have four diamonds more often than declarer. That makes the 10 a safer lead, e.g. Dummy has AQ98, partner Jxxx and declarer Kx. We might beat it with two clubs and two hearts if partner has as little as Jxxx Jxx Jxxx xx.”

Andy Braithwaite “10 : Clearly partner has a very poor hand with a 4342 or 4351 shape and is trying to escape from 1NT before the penalty doubles start.

 

My safest lead is therefore required and this must be a red suit- as both opposition hands are reasonably balanced, I do not need to lead a trump and if K is in dummy, I may be able to give partner a club ruff if I hold onto A. So, 10 it is.

Wayne Burrows “7  I think this problem is hard. Leads are hard. What I can expect from partner might depend on what follow-ups we play to Stayman.

For example is 3 of a minor on the next round weak or forcing so can partner have one major and a long minor and escape from 1NT this way? Or is partner likely to have length in the majors - perhaps 4=3=5=1 or similar? I think the key card here is the ace of trumps. While we hold that card, we have control.

 So I think I can delay the trick one guess with a passive diamond and take radical measures if necessary when in with the trump ace. Based on my example 4=3=5=1 possibility above, it could be right to lead the A and aim to give partner two ruffs. That would be my second choice as while that distribution is possible it is far from guaranteed.”

So, some different ideas about the shape of dummy and our partner’s hand. I believe it very likely that East is weak and not invitational and therefore holds 4 spades and at least 4 diamonds. I guessed that they could well have 5 diamonds and therefore attacked from trick 1, as both Stephen and Wayne hinted at…A A … and 2  club ruffs.

Even if this was not accurate, the K could be in dummy and this would be a fast way to set up some club tricks. Was I right?

 

Nearly was not good enough! Partner could have tried a revoke on the second round of clubs (A then Q) but that would not have worked. The defence took A and 2 clubs but that did not defeat the contract.

Either A and a second heart or any initial diamond lead would have defeated the game but not for any reason the Panel suggested. They would have taken a vital entry from dummy necessary to eventually end-play West in clubs. Watch what happens on a spade lead:

A and a low heart (it does not matter whether West wins or ducks). Say they duck. Q wins and is followed by K (club discard) and a spade ruff. Now a second heart. West exits a diamond.

Now a second spade ruff and the last trump is drawn. These cards remain:

South needs 3 more tricks. J to the king and a diamond ruff and then 8 from hand. South will score a club at trick 13.

Somehow, after a spade lead, I feel Eric Rodwell (USA) would have been good enough to find that play. Playing a club towards the king just would not work. West was sure to hold A.

So, the attacking A did not work this time whereas a passive red card would have done. At least I had a plan which would have worked on a different day.

Richard Solomon

Don't forget this Friday night is Loveblock New Zealand Wide Pairs night. There are 54 heats this year and one is sure to be at a club near you. As well as being a good night out, this event is raising funds for our young players to help develop their game. They are our future. Thanks for your support.

Here is the list of competing clubs: https://www.nzbridge.co.nz/loveblock-nz-wide-pairs.html  

 

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