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A “Certain” Guess.

Today, we examine how some guesses as to which defender holds certain honour cards really need not be guesses at all. They are “stone cold certainties!”

The declarer in today’s contract did everything right until the critical moment. Firstly, the bidding:

 

South opened an 11-14 hcp 1NT. West decided to bid their 5-card spade suit and East raised a level inviting game. Should West accept that invitation?

An overcall of a 1NT opening should be in the 10-14 hcp range. With more hcp, one would double and with less pass. West was in the lower end of that range and did not have a very good trump suit. So, they elected to pass. That seemed a great idea when they saw dummy:

 

 North led 10 and South played K at trick 1. There seemed almost certainly one losing trick in each suit. Making game, 10 tricks, seemed pretty remote. Indeed, it looked like there could be two losing tricks in the club suit…and if so, that would be one down.

So, West won the opening lead with A and played a small trump to the J which won the trick. Next came a low spade to the Q and North’s A. North played 9 with Q in declarer’s hand winning the trick. West then played A and a second heart which was won by South’s K. South played the winning J and then exited passively with 8. After losing one trick in each of spades, hearts and diamonds, it all came down to playing clubs successfully for just one loser.

Declarer played a spade to their hand and then, correctly, played a club. North played a low club. Which club should declarer play from the East hand?

Was it a pure guess? The answer was “no”. If you inserted J, you would be correct..but why?

 

The down-side of bidding

When the opposition open the bidding but end up defending, they will very often have given the declarer some help about how to play a deal, about where some of the missing honour cards were.

Here, West knew that South had 11-14 hcp and a balanced hand. Before West made the critical decision about which club to play from the East hand, they had the opportunity to just check on how many high card points South had shown so far. None in spades, K, KJ. That is 7 hcp. They opened 1NT. To come to a minimum 11, they just had to hold A. Indeed,  they could hold Q as well to come to 13 hcp.

If they held A and Q, the contract could not be made. It was just possible that South did not hold Q. It was a certainty they held A, So, play the J and just hope that South does not have Q.

Had West done that, they would have made their contract. Alas, West guessed wrongly. There was no guess needed, just a little high card point counting. That is not easy when one starts playing but it is a skill one acquires with practice. Counting high card points of an opponent does not always help but it can guide a declarer to a successful line of play.

Also, clubs had to be played from the West hand. Had declarer started with a low club, or indeed any club, from dummy, they would lose 2 club tricks for sure.

Next time you are declarer after an opponent has bid, and you have a key decision to make, try counting how many high card points they have shown. It can make a tough decision much easier. Sometimes you can even draw the right conclusion because an opponent has not bid. That will be for another day.

 

Richard Solomon

 

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